[张贴报告]Data assimilation of adaptive observation and application for typhoon forecasts over the Western North Pacific

Data assimilation of adaptive observation and application for typhoon forecasts over the Western North Pacific
编号:3956 稿件编号:109 访问权限:私有 更新:2023-04-21 00:51:41 浏览:170次 张贴报告

报告开始:2023年05月06日 08:01 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:1min

所在会议:[SP] 张贴报告专场 » [SP-13-1] 13、大气物理与气象气候

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摘要
In this study, we added the post-processing module of the Ensemble Transform Sensitivity (ETS) to identify
regions sensitive to adaptive observations of different variables at different levels for typhoon forecasts. We
selected five cases between 2015 and 2020 over the Western North Pacific (WNP) using 50 ensemble forecasts
from the European Center provided by the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) portal.
Furthermore, intercomparison experiments were performed to explore the impact of adaptive observational data
assimilation with conventional observations and Himawari-8 data over the sensitive (SEN), non-sensitive
(NOSEN), and all studied regions (ALL) on typhoon forecasts using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation
(GSI) assimilation system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of United States. The
results show that the assimilation of less observational data in the SEN areas can achieve the forecast effect of
assimilation in ALL regions, the intensity error can be reduced by approximately 15%, and the track error is
reduced in some cases. Finally, detailed analysis of the circulation field and flux perspectives for Typhoon
Lekima, which occurred in August 2019 over the WNP, confirmed our conclusion. At 1800 UTC on August 8, the
data assimilation was performed over the SEN, NOSEN, and ALL areas. The initial circulation field, in which the
vorticity increased in the southwest of the typhoon and decreased in the southeast, benefited the westward
movement of the typhoon. The 18 h forecast indicated that the circulation in the SEN area assimilation experiment
showed a negative vorticity increase in the southwest side of the typhoon and positive potential temperature
as well as water vapor forecast differences on its north side, which contrasted with the results obtained
in the NOSEN and ALL experiments. This provided favorable weather conditions for the typhoon to change
direction and move northward. Targeted observation experiments investigating Typhoon Lekima indicated that
assimilating observations of sensitive areas greatly improves typhoon forecasting and assimilation efficiency.
However, the ALL experiment yielded the best forecast among the three cases.
关键字
Data assimilation,Adaptive observation,ETS,Sensitive area,Typhoon forecasting
报告人
陈思奇
南京信息工程大学

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李长冬(15327198910;lichangdong2008@126.com)
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徐 鹏(13554674258;xupengwhu@whu.edu.cn)
学术安排:
王伦澈(13349889828;wang@cug.edu.cn)
庄艳华(13349889826;zhuang@apm.ac.cn)
李星华(15527964369;lixinghua5540@whu.edu.cn)
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